The weather at the beginning of 2023 has gone from one extreme to another, which impacted plantings but as Adam Darnes, brewing & distilling malt sales manager at Muntons, says things are progressing well.
Markets have been tracking lower with softness especially in 2022 crop which has only a short time remaining to move the surplus in wheat. Some farmers are carrying 2022 crop wheat into 2023 crop to minimise the lost opportunity from an earlier sale at much better prices.
A differential is building between the discounted 2022 crop and the 2023 crop to arrive in August which still has the major part of the growing season ahead of it and hence carries weather risk. Feed barley prices have been following feed wheat pricing, with malting barley holding historically strong premiums given smaller plantings and continued quality uncertainty through to harvest.
French values for both feed and malting barley have been hit by the news that China is giving strong consideration to removing the punitive import tax on Australian barley which will open up the market again and reduce the reliance on
France as the primary source of barley, together with other suppliers Canada and Argentina. The start of 2023 went from one extreme to another. There was the eighth driest February in 188 years and the third wettest March in 288 years.
The majority of the spring barley due to be planted in England was completed in ideal conditions within the month of February. The subsequent rainfall in March stopped field operations and at the time of writing (mid-April) activity has now restarted and is progressing well in remaining areas of Northern England and Scotland.
Other spring crops have been severely impacted by the rainfall delay in March, principally sugar beet and potatoes, but with better weather ahead there is optimism that crops will catch up.
The spring barley planted in February is looking in very good condition and at this stage prospects for above average yields look promising. Winter barley crops have also enjoyed the rainfall in March and are looking in great condition at this stage, ahead of 2022 crop.
WEATHER CONCERNS
Drought in Spain and Portugal is likely to result in a barley harvest at or below the bottom end of the normal range. Spain typically produces 6-10 million MT of Barley, meaning this will result in significant imports from Northern Europe of feed barley to service a large animal feed demand.
Spring barley plantings in France were completed earlier than usual in February with similar conditions to Eastern England. Plantings in more Northern areas, for example Denmark, have restarted this week and will likely progress well with drier conditions forecast.
