During a challenging year for the brewing industry, we consult some of the leading data and statistic platforms to see where they expect the appetite for UK beer to head in the coming months and years.
It will come as little surprise that the number of UK breweries in operation dipped slightly as 2023 drew to a close. In figures released at the start of December, the net number of brewing businesses dropped by nine.
According to the Society of Independent Brewers (SIBA), there are now 1817 UK breweries trading. The latest numbers cover the period from beginning of July 2023 to the end of September 2023. Earlier this year, the association recorded a drop of four breweries in the first quarter before a net increase of two in quarter two.
“Brewery numbers have been more stable than many would have predicted, with no large percentage decreases but it is still concerning to see numbers slip back slightly, and whilst it was positive to see beer duty frozen in the Autumn Statement, the Chancellor could have gone further and boosted the Draught Relief to 20% or more which guarantees that beer sold in pubs has a lower rate of duty.” said Andy Slee, SIBA Chief Executive.
“When breweries are facing rampant costs from the increased National Living Wage, energy costs and inflationary pressures, there was nothing extra in the Autumn Statement to cover this.”
While these latest figures provide a valuable insight into brewery numbers, where do some of the leading market research, reports, and statistics firms see the UK sector heading?
According to Statista, the sales volume of beer in the United Kingdom increased slightly in 2023 to 3.8 billion litres. While this was a rebound from the 2022 low of 3.5 billion litres it was nevertheless 21 percent lower than the peak volume in 2018.
When it comes to trade, the company revealed that UK beer imports totalled £469 million GBP in 2022, this represents a drop on previous years owing to the impact of the pandemic and Brexit.
With the Irish Republic the single biggest trade partner in terms of beer imports, Statista says that “UK beer exports appear to be finally returning to normal”, reaching £487 million in 2022, which is more than 21 percent up since a 2020 low. Asia, it explains, is now the largest trading partner for beer exports.
And in its recently-released report – Craft Beer Production in the UK – Market Size, Industry Analysis, Trends and Forecasts (2023-2028) – IBIS World says that industry revenue is growing at a compound annual rate of 1.5% over the five years through 2023-24 to approximately £1.7 billion, which includes growth of 10.2% in 2023-24.
Earlier his year, drinks company Babco, utilising data from NIQ, reported that the total value of the UK off-trade beer market for the year to July 2023 was just a little over £5 billion.
According to the figures, established mainstream beers account for £2.9 billion of this figure but beers positioned in the ‘world/discovery’ category experiences a sales increase of 7.5% to approximately £1.65 billion.
Finally, and perhaps unsurprisingly, the largest increase came in the low-and-no space with sales up 19.7% to £128 million
“Mainstream has really suffered with heavy promotional activity to match volume numbers year on year,” says Lewis Bowen, CEO, Babco.
“World/discovery beers have benefitted hugely in the latest 52 weeks, with consumers trading up and new launches coming from key brands adding £114 million to plug the losses from mainstream. Q4 will be a telling time to understand if consumers will stay loyal to new habits.”
